About the authors
| First name, Middle name, Last name, Scientific degree, Scientific rank, Current position. Full and brief name of the organization, The organization address. | Oleg Yu. Mikhalchenko, candidate of technical sciences, associate professor, Novosibirsk State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering (Sibstrin), Novosibirsk, Russia E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ; ORCID 0009-0009-7623-0762 |
| Title of the article | Bifurcations in network scheduling of construction projects: methods of forecasting and adaptive management |
| Abstract. | Problem statement. Network scheduling plays an important role in construction project management by ensuring efficient resource allocation and schedule control. However, the dynamic nature of the construction process leads to unexpected changes, known as bifurcations, when small deviations in parameters cause abrupt restructuring of the project network graph. Bifurcations can be caused by various factors, including supply delays, resource shortages, adverse weather conditions, and changes in legislation. As a result, the critical path of the project is disrupted, leading to schedule shifts and increased costs. The purpose of this study is to develop models that take into account bifurcations in network scheduling. The research objectives include: -Studying the mechanisms of bifurcation occurrence in construction projects within the context of network scheduling, as well as determining their impact on project timelines and costs. -Developing adaptive management methods for construction projects to minimize risks associated with bifurcations. Results. The paper discusses various types of bifurcations, including topological bifurcation, resource constraint bifurcation, and external condition bifurcation. Mathematical methods for forecasting bifurcations are analyzed. Additionally, approaches to managing bifurcations are studied. Conclusions. The significance of the obtained results for the construction industry lies in the fact that the implementation of mathematical models for forecasting bifurcations in construction projects, as well as the analysis of time buffers and critical paths, allows for more accurate forecasting of potential changes in a project. This helps to adjust planning in a timely manner and avoid negative consequences. Modern construction projects are becoming increasingly complex and large-scale, requiring the application of flexible management methods and forecasting of possible changes. Effective prediction of bifurcations and timely adjustments to planning help minimize risks, improve the economic efficiency of construction, and ensure its timely completion. |
| Keywords. | adaptive management, risk management, construction, chaos theory, bifurcations, Monte Carlo method, organizational and technological solutions |
| For citations: | Mikhalchenko O.Yu. Bifurcations in network scheduling of construction projects: methods of forecasting and adaptive management // News of KSUAE, 2025, № 1(71), p. 122-129, DOI: 10.48612/NewsKSUAE/71.11, EDN: MHSATY |
