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First name, Middle name, Last name, Scientific degree, Scientific rank, Current position. Full and brief name of the organization, The organization address.Karaeva Iu.V. – candidate of technical sciences E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it Daminov A.Z. – candidate of technical sciences E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it Solomin I.N. – post-graduate student E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it Research center of power engineering problems Federal government budgetary institution of science Kazan scientific center Russian Academy of Sciences The organization address: 420111, Russia, Kazan, Lobachevsky st., 2/31 Sadykov R.A. – doctor of technical sciences, professor E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it Kazan State University of Architecture and Engineering The organization address: 420043, Russia, Kazan, Zelenaya st., 1
Title of the articleModeling and long-term forecasting of the township energy sector development
Abstract.Forecasting method of the township energy sector development is developed. It consists of algorithm for complex problem solving, simulation model, database and software computer system. Existing and future technology solutions are taken into account in the database formation. The model of the energy sector of Kazan is developed. The development of hybrid models represents an important step in energy economy modeling, as hybrid models embody the most useful features of both top-down (or partial equilibrium) and bottom-up models (mainly computable general equilibrium models). Hybrid models explicitly represent technologies in a similar way to bottom-up models, thus enabling policy makers to understand the effects of technology-specific policies on energy consumption and the economy. However, to simulate consumer choice between alternative technologies and processes, hybrid models diverge from bottom-up models to use the behaviorally realistic approach of top-down models, resulting in a simulation model rather than an optimization model, which is ultimately of more use to policy makers. The primary challenge in developing a representative hybrid model lies in specifying the algorithm to simulate consumer choice between alternative technologies. The algorithm needs to capture the fundamentals of consumer behavior at a disaggregate level. This essentially involves estimating the empirically derived aggregate parameters used in top-down modeling at a technology specific level.
Keywords.Modeling, long-term forecasting, energy sector, township.
For citations:Karaeva Iu.V., Daminov A.Z., Solomin I.N., Sadykov R.A. Modeling and long-term forecasting of the township energy sector development // Izvestiya KGASU. 2012. №4(22) P.215-223.


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