About the authors
| First name, Middle name, Last name, Scientific degree, Scientific rank, Current position. Full and brief name of the organization, The organization address. | Shmelev G.D. – candidate of technical sciences, professor E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it Fedotova M.I. – post-graduate student E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it Voronezh State Technical University The organization address: 394006, Russia, Voronezh, 20th anniversary of October str., 84 |
| Title of the article | The use of random functions and processes in the combined integral method of forecasting the residual service life of building constructions |
| Abstract. | Problem statement. Based on the analysis of existing techniques of predicting the reliability and residual service life of building constructions proposed combined integral technique of an estimation residual service life of building constructions and engineering structures. Technique simultaneously uses: interval estimates of defining parameters; prediction based on the theory of random functions; modeling of real change in the state constructions using a random number generator for prediction obtained during time intervals for each forecasted parameter; classical mathematical statistics for the final statistical analysis of the results. To perform the prediction held apparatus random functions and processes. By random processes restrictions are imposed. Forecasting of conducted on several methods: expert assessments, parametric, method «load – load bearing capacity» method «load – of deformation». Apparatus functions of random amplified using the technique of interval forecasting. Results. The projections are used top and bottom interval values for each parameter defining, obtained in the study of the technical condition of the object. In the course prediction parameter for each interval is obtained lifetime. Inside each interval are simulated intermediate deadlines service lives of all type under study constructions. In the subsequent interval are combined according to the rules aggregation. In this case, the forecast used to build a small amount of input data and does not require long-term monitoring of the constructions building or engineering structure. Conclusion. The proposed approach allows the author increase the reliability and accuracy of the prediction with minimal set of input data without a long-term observation of the object. |
| Keywords. | forecasting, combined integral method, the random function, borders, random process, building construction. |
| For citations: | Shmelev G.D., Fedotova M.I. The use of random functions and processes in the combined integral method of forecasting the residual service life of building constructions // Izvestiya KGASU. 2017. №1(39) P.128-136. |
