About the authors
| First name, Middle name, Last name, Scientific degree, Scientific rank, Current position. Full and brief name of the organization, The organization address. | Maystrenko I.Yu. – candidate of technical sciences, associate professor E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it Manapov A.Z. – candidate of technical sciences, associate professor E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it Kazan State University of Architecture and Engineering The organization The organization address: 420043, Russia, Kazan, Zelenaya st., 1 |
| Title of the article | Statistical modeling of work of building structures by the method of Monte-Carlo. Work with numerical sets |
| Abstract. | In this article the analysis of efficiency of obtaining of numerical sets of target and intermediate parameters from known numerical sets of input parameters was performed using the imitation modeling. Five different ways of numerical sets processing, were chosen by the authors to determine the total constant loading on a plate of building structure covering. Statistical modeling of work of building structures involves completing the same chain of operations, as with the deterministic approach. The difference is in the form of representation and logic of obtaining intermediate and final parameters from initial parameters. Total load, tension from operating loadings, geometrical characteristics of sections can be intermediate parameters. Final (target) parameters usually are total pressure from the load, total movements of separate points of a design or specific materials durability. Imitation modeling of final and intermediate parameters assumes presence of numerical sets describing statistical distribution of input parameters, and the deterministic functions of transition from input parameters to target or intermediate parameters. Transitions from initial parameters to intermediate and final parameters during process of statistical modeling differ from transitions based on deterministic methods by the fact that former should account for all possible combinations of values used in calculation. Because the number of possible combinations may be overwhelming for processing by personal computers, for the practical solutions in building designs it is required to develop a special methods for manipulating the numeric sets with lest errors and in a timely fashion. The final statistics was received by performing four hundred runs of related imitation model on each of five ways of numerical sets processing. The statistical analysis completed in this work estimates resultant constant loading from known statistical estimates of its components. It had been discovered that after various transformation of numerical sets distribution of summary random variables can sharply differ from the distribution of their components. The most effective numerical estimations describing degree of distortion of summary statistical distribution (asymmetry, excess, etc.) have more stable a sample of random variables outcomes with probabilities corresponding to the specific probability distributions with the subsequent line-by-transformation of values of the derived numerical sets using the deterministic interaction functions. As a result of the conducted research it is discovered that when initial numerical sets increase to a certain level, estimation of entropy based on various ways of confident intervals method, can have similar values. Therefore it is possible to use this to estimate the possible statistical value of target parameter random variable beyond the entropic uncertainty interval. |
| Keywords. | Building structure, statistical, the analysis, modeling, numerical set, imitating experiment, method of Monte-Carlo. |
| For citations: | Maystrenko I.Yu., Manapov A.Z. Statistical modeling of work of building structures by the method of Monte-Carlo. Work with numerical sets // Izvestiya KGASU. 2012. №2(20) P.84-93. |
